Trading Bases

Monday, June 30, 2014

Dwyer 6-30-14 MLB Game Mets v. Braves #dwyersportsbetting


Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-30-14 MLB Game Mets v. Braves. I like the Braves to win. Braves have won 4 in a row, their starting pitcher Alex Wood gave up no runs in his last outing and only two runs in the outing before that.


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Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Dwyer 6-26-14 MLB Game Twins v. Angels #dwyersportsbetting


Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-26-14 MLB Game Twins v. Angels. I like the Angels to win. Angels have won 5 in a row, are playing at home, and have Jered Weaver on the mound. In Weaver's last start, he went 8 innings and only gave up one run. Twins have lost two in a row.


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Dwyer 6-25-14 MLB Game Senators v. Brewers #dwyersportsbetting


Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-25-14 MLB Game Senators v. Brewers. I like the Senators to win. Starter Strasburg has had a sub 3 ERA over his last 7 starts. Senators have won 4 in a row. Brewer starter Estrada has a 7 plus ERA over his last 7 starts.


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Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Dwyer 6-24-14 MLB Game Tigers v. Rangers #dwyersportsbetting


Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-24-14 MLB Game Tigers v. Rangers. I like the Tigers to win. Tigers have won their last 3. Rangers have lost their last 4. Rangers have not scored more than 3 runs in any of their last 4 games.

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Dwyer 6-26-14 World Cup Match USA v. Germany #dwyersportsbetting


Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-26-14 World Cup Match USA v. Germany #dwyersportsbetting. I like Germany to win @ -143, with an insurance hedge (to recover part of your investment, not full insurance) of the draw @ +160. The game is mispriced IMO. The public is overemphasizing the USA's victory over Ghana, and Germany's draw with Ghana. Germany is the world class team with the world class offense (one goal every 4 attempts [average is one goal every 9.4 attempts] one goal every 30 minutes v. the USA's one goal every 45). Juergen Klinsmann doesn't substitute players until late in games. USA is likely to be fatigued against deeper German team.

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Dwyer 6-24-14 MLB Game Orioles v. White Sox #dwyersportsbetting


Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-24-14 MLB Game Orioles v. White Sox. I like Baltimore to win. Baltimore has won their last 3. White Sox have lost their last 5. Game is in Baltimore. White Sox starter Jose Quintana has not won in his last 4 starts.

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Sunday, June 22, 2014

Dwyer 6-22-14 MLB Game Atlanta v. Washington #dwyersportsbetting


Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-22-14 MLB Game Atlanta v. Washington. I like Washington to win. Starter Tanner Roark has won his last three starts and sports a 2.05 ERA.

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Dwyer 6-22-14 MLB Game Dodgers v. Padres #dwyersportsbetting


Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-22-14 MLB Game Dodgers v. Padres. I like the Dodgers to win. Dodger starter Ryu is 4-1 in his last 5 starts. By contrast, Padre starter Stults is 0-6 in his last 7 starts. Dodgers have won 4 of their last 5.

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Saturday, June 21, 2014

Dwyer 6-21-14 MLB Game Blue Jays v. Reds #dwyersportsbetting


Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-21-14 MLB Game Blue Jays v. Reds. I like the Blue Jays to win. Historically, Blue Jay batters have had success against Red starter Leake, who is 2-3 in his last seven starts.

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Dwyer 6-21-14 Robert Guerrero v. Yoshihiro Kamegai - YouTube

Dwyer 6-21-14 Robert Guerrero v. Yoshihiro Kamegai - YouTube

Friday, June 20, 2014

Dwyer World Cup - Germany (@-333) over Ghana


Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer World Cup - Germany (@-333) over Ghana. I like Germany @ -333 to win. I'd hedge the play by placing one third of expected winnings on a draw @ +450. The hedge is simply to cut your losses should the game end in a draw. FIFA ranked Germany the 2d best team in the world headed into the World Cup. They are a powerhouse. By contrast Ghana - who has already lost a game in the tourney - was ranked 31st. IMO Ghana doesn't have the offense to keep up.

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Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Dwyer 6-18-14 MLB Game Milwaukee (@-110) v. Arizona #dwyersportsbetting


Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-18-14 MLB Game Milwaukee (@-110) v. Arizona. I like Milwaukee @ -110. Arizona starter Wade Miley has not had a win in his last 6 starts. Milwaukee has won three of their last four, including a nice comeback win yesterday. Milwaukee starter Matt Garza has only given up 4 earned runs in his last three starts.

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Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Dwyer 6-17-14 MLB Game Milwaukee (@-115) v. Arizona


Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-17-14 MLB Game Milwaukee (@-115) v. Arizona. I like Milwaukee @ -115. Milwaukee starter Kyle Lohse has been on fire and went 8 strong innings his last time out. He is 3-1 in his last 7 starts. Brewers are 22-14 on the road.

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Dwyer 6-17-14 MLB Game St. Louis (@-170) v. New York



Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-17-14 MLB Game St. Louis (@-170) v. New York. I like St. Louis @ -170. The Cardinals are hot, and have won 4 in a row. The game is in St. Louis. The Cards are making a mid-season push to catch the division leading Brewers. Card hitters have had some success against Met starter Jon Niese.

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Friday, June 13, 2014

Dwyer Game 5 NBA Finals San Antonio Spurs (@ -240) v. Miami Heat



Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer Game 5 NBA Finals San Antonio Spurs (@ -240) v. Miami Heat. I like the Spurs @ -240. Miami still has yet to score 100 points in any of the games in this Finals. (Spurs have topped the century mark three times.) As I noted before Game 4, "the Heat don't have the Spurs talent and depth." The Spurs have sizable advantages after four games in most of the major metrics (PPG, rebounds, assists, shooting percentage, blocks, few turnovers, etc.). The Spurs are the better team. I expect the Spurs to win the title and to end the series in Game 5.

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Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Dwyer Game 4 NBA Finals San Antonio Spurs (@+5.5) v. Miami Heat



Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer Game 4 NBA Finals San Antonio Spurs (@+5.5) v. Miami Heat. I like the Spurs @ +5.5. Miami has yet to score 100 points in any of the games in this Finals. (Spurs have topped the century mark twice.) Simply put, the Heat don't have the Spurs talent and depth. The Spurs have sizable advantages after three games in most of the major metrics (PPG, rebounds, assists, shooting percentage, blocks, few turnovers, etc.). The 5.5 is too wide IMO. The Spurs are the better team. Don't rule out the possibility that this game might be LeBron's last home game as a Miami Heat.

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Dwyer Boxing Demetrius Andrade (@-800) v. Brian Rose



Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer Boxing Demetrius Andrade (@-800) v. Brian Rose. I like Andrade @ -800. Andrade is a jewel. He is a tall, slick southpaw who - while relatively unknown - is IMO better than many bigger names, including middleweight champion Peter Quillin. Although tall, Andrade is a committed body puncher. He is two handed and can lead with power shots -- notably a straight left. His record -- unbeaten -- is better than advertised as he landed twice the shots of Vanes Martirosyan yet was only awarded a split decision. Brian Rose is an overachiever who likely would not have been awarded the decision IMO over Javier Maciel were it not on British soil. While Rose has heart, he lacks power. He has never fought in the United States and this fight is in Brooklyn. I'm expecting this to be a showcase for Andrade.

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Dwyer Boxing Erislandy Lara @ +130 v. Saul Alvarez



Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer Boxing Erislandy Lara @ +130 v. Saul Alvarez. I like Lara @ +130. If the odds allow, hedge the play with Saul Alvarez by KO. Both are low volume. Lara moves better, has the better reflexes, and is a southpaw who will have little , if any, problem avoiding Canelo's jab. The line is deceptively close -- in fact, Lara is an underdog, because he got dropped twice by Alfredo Angulo who then lost by KO to Canelo. Angulo was much more aggressive against Lara than Canelo will be. Angulo was willing to get hit to land punches and tried to walk through Lara's combinations. Canelo is discouraged by crisp counters. In a slow paced fight, I'm expecting Lara to box circles around Canelo.

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Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Dwyer Game 3 NBA Finals San Antonio Spurs (@+4.5) v. Miami Heat



Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer Game 3 NBA Finals San Antonio Spurs (@+4.5) v. Miami Heat. I like the Spurs @ +4.5. The 4.5 is too wide a margin in a game that likely will have heightened defensive intensity. Neither team scored 100 points in Game 2 -- a game that had a final score margin of 2, less than half of this 4.5 spread. LeBron - who is carrying the Heat - is hitting on 83% of his threes in the series -- a pace that can't continue. Tim Duncan has owned the paint and is averaging 12.5 boards a game. Miami has no one averaging more than 8.0 boards a game. (Note that Boris Diaw is averaging 10 boards a game.) Even though Miami now has home field, this remains a competitive series. The 4.5 spread is simply too wide IMO.

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Saturday, June 7, 2014

Dwyer 6-7-14 game Chicago Sky (@+5) v. Atlanta Dream #dwyersportsbetting



Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-7-14 game Chicago Sky (@+5) v. Atlanta Dream. I like the Chicago Sky @ +5. Be careful -- the Sky (who I wrongly picked in yesterday's game) lost at home against the Sparks. But I continue to believe in the Sky who are 5-2 and expect them to bounce back on the road against the Atlanta Dream. These teams played on May 24th and the Sky won by 14 points. The Sky inexplicably gave up more than 100 points against the Sparks and should emphasize defense in this game. Five points is a huge line for a WNBA game. Note that the Dream on average give up more points per game than they score.

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Friday, June 6, 2014

Dwyer 6-6-14 game Phoenix Mercury (@-200) v. Tulsa Shock



Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-6-14 game Phoenix Mercury (@-200) v. Tulsa Shock. I like the Mercury to win @ -200. These teams played on May 30th and the Mercury won by 22 points, and scored 100 in the game. The game will be in Tulsa, but the Mercury are much better defensively and will be in the first game of their road trip. Keep an eye on the Mercury as they are the best offensive team in the league.

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Dwyer 6-6-14 game Chicago Sky (@-150) v. Los Angeles Sparks



Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. Dwyer 6-6-14 game Chicago Sky (@-150) v. Los Angeles Sparks. I like the Sky to win @ -150. The Sparks have lost two in a row, and gave up more than 90 points in both games. They are reeling defensively. The Sky scored over 100 (a big total in the WNBA) in their last game, and will be playing their fifth game in a row at home. The Sky are a very good shooting team, and hit almost 40% of their threes. They are also better defensively than the Sparks.

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Thursday, June 5, 2014

Dwyer 6-5-14 game New York Liberty (@-150) v. San Antonio Silver Stars #dwyersportsbetting



Warning: Gambling involves great risk. You could lose it all. 6-5-14 game New York Liberty (@-150) v. San Antonio Silver Stars. I like the Liberty to win on the money line @ -150. Liberty is one of the WNBA'S best defensive teams. They are playing at home on several days rest against a Silver Stars team that has a better record but is below average both offensively (as is the Liberty) and defensively. The Stars are sliding, having lost two in a row. They further have a tough game on Saturday against the Phoenix Mercury. I don't expect them to have the focus necessary to deal with the Liberty's defensive intensity in a road game. I expect the Liberty's defense to be the difference.

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