Trading Bases

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

#dwyersportsbetting - Dwyer 4-30-14 San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks


I like the Spurs @ -280 over the Mavericks tonight. Spurs are playing great defense and can't afford to again lose home court advantage. Dallas is relying heavily on three point shooting which may not hold up on the road.
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Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Dwyer 4-23-14 Tonight's Spurs v. Mavericks Game #dwyersportsbetting


Warning: You could lose it all. I like the under 200 in tonight's San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks game. The first game was 90-85, well below the 200. Neither team shot even 44% from the field. I expect more of the same. Both teams have deep benches. The substitutions will dampen fatigue. Dallas needs the win to gain home court and to avoid having to win 4 of 5 to win the series. I'm expecting intensity and a slower pace.
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Thursday, April 17, 2014

Dwyer 4-17-14 NBA Series Play - Toronto v. Brooklyn


Current odds - Brooklyn -120, Toronto +100. I like Brooklyn to win this series even though Toronto has the home court advantage. Brooklyn struggled for the first 6 weeks, but has been on fire since. The Nets are loaded, not just with stars but also with key role players (Livingstone, Thornton). They are deeper than the Raptors and have more playoff experience. The Nets have several players who can take over games (Pierce, Johnson, Williams, Thornton) and have players who are playoff tested with rings (Pierce, Garnett). Frankly, the Nets are a live darkhorse regardless of who they play.
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Dwyer 4-17-14 -- NBA Series Play - Clippers Over Warriors


I believe it is over for the Warriors -- who have fired two assistant coaches and have an injured starting center Andrew Bogut. The owner refuses to commit to Mark Jackson for next year. I like the Clippers at the posted odds (right now -360). Bogut is an excellent rebounder. Without him, the Clippers will have the upper hand on the boards with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin. On the perimeter, the Clippers also have the quickness to slow down Stephan Curry. Chris Paul is a juggernaut. He also is excellent at stealing the basketball -- while Curry has a problem with turnovers. By contrast, the Warriors's David Lee is defensively challenged in the low post and won't have Bogut's help. The Clippers also have the home court advantage. Their coach - Doc Rivers - has won an NBA championship. His chief second - Alvin Gentry - himself has been a playoff head coach.
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Dwyer 4-17-14 Casino Mispricing - Pro Basketball Series Play



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Monday, April 7, 2014

Dwyer 4-7-14 Anthony Mundine @ -250 v. Joshua Clottey #dwyersportsbetting


Be aware of the risk. You could lose it all. I like Mundine in the fight. I view Mundine as vastly underrated with one of the better defenses in the game. He knows how to use length and can operate behind a jab. He has had a problem with high volume aggressive fighters (Garth Wood, Daniel Geale). But he is an elite chess player against lower volume opponents against whom he can pop a jab, move, fend off their attacks while using his elite countering skills. Clottey has a passive defense and does not throw punches while being hit. Mundine is too smart to fall into the trap of "punching himself out." Clottey does best against guys on their front foot who bring the fight to him (Baldomir, Cotto). Here again, Mundine is too skilled and will stay on his back foot enough to force Clottey to take the lead -- which is not Clottey's game. I expect Mundine to outbox him and like Mundine to win @ -250.
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